India-Pakistan Relations Could Spark Wider Conflict
October 26, 2021—With the regional balance of power shifting in Central Asia, India is the odd man out in both economic and strategic ways. Perhaps to counteract the balance shift, the United States appears to be strengthening with India. But it’s not clear how much weight that will carry in the tricky landscape of Central Asia.
For one, China and Pakistan are strengthening their economic relationship. China is investing billions of dollars into Pakistan through the Economic Corridor Initiative. (See GER’s previous reporting.) Furthermore, leaders from both countries are building ties with the new Taliban-led Afghan government.
Meanwhile, China and India are at odds over disputed territory in the Himalayas. As the Rand Corporation‘s Analyst Derek Grossman recently wrote, “Trust between Beijing and New Delhi is virtually nonexistent, and the last thing India needs is another front to worry about.”
Regional Rivalry
What’s even more noticeable is that the decades-old tensions between rivals India and Pakistan are again flaring up, especially in Kashmir.
It’s an area that’s been off the radar for U.S. diplomats in the past two years. The last time a State Department spokesman was asked about it by a reporter, he replied, “We continue to support direct dialogue between India and Kashmir – between India and Pakistan, excuse me, on Kashmir and other issues of concern. We’ve read out the Secretary’s key calls with his counterparts in the region, so I don’t have any details to share beyond that.” That was in March.
Likewise, the United Nations appears to be largely hands-off, despite having an open-ended UN Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) in place since 1948. In 2020, the Security Council did not make any changes to the group, according to the latest report.
Taliban Takeover Impact
In September, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi raised concerns that the Taliban’s easy takeover in Afghanistan could inspire terrorist groups to challenge the status quo in other countries.
Separately, last week, Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister, raised concerns about terrorism impacting Afghanistan’s neighbors. “There is a real threat of the terrorist and drug activity, including on behalf of those who masquerade as members of migration flows, leaking into neighboring countries. In this context and for obvious reasons we are particularly concerned about Central Asia,” he said during an expanded-Troika meeting held in Moscow.
Some observers say Modi and Lavrov have reason to be concerned.
“For Pakistan, the Taliban’s return to Afghanistan offers strategic depth against India,” Derek Grossman recently wrote for Rand. “Islamabad’s Islamist extremist and terrorist proxies—including not only the Taliban but also the Haqqani network, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and other groups—are likely to expand and bolster their capabilities in Afghanistan and potentially launch attacks outside the country.”
In that regard, Kashmir comes into play.
‘When Kashmir Blows Up’
It’s telling that former U.S. officials see Kashmir as a cause for concern. Former Deputy Secretary U.S. State Department Richard Armitage highlighted the potential of spillover from tensions in Kashmir to neighboring countries of Afghanistan like Pakistan, India and China.
“It will evidence itself in Kashmir,” Armitage said at a recent House Armed Forces Committee. “When Kashmir blows up, which I think it very well might, then we have got India, Pakistan and China all involved in this.”
Ryan Crocker, former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan, cautioned lawmakers against breaking U.S. relations with Pakistan.
“A blowup in Kashmir is going to bring a regional war,” Crocker said. “Pakistan is worried for their own country and the repercussions of letting Taliban take full control.”
Kashmir, A Flashpoint For Friction
India and Pakistan have fought two wars over the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. Today the concern by some is that the shift of balance of power in the region gives Pakistan the upper hand. (See the GER‘s previous reporting on the issue.)
Grossman notes that the Taliban-led Afghan government offered to make positive relations with India. However, he points out, the Taliban rule might inspire acts of terror. That might already be taking place in India’s Jammu and Kashmir region. Pakistan claims parts of the state. What’s also troubling is that militant organizations like the Harakat-ul Jihad Islami, which formed in the 1980s in Afghanistan, aim to break the state off from India, according to a 2019 report by the State Department. Other groups, such as Harakat ul-Mujahideen, the Hizbul Mujahideen, Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed, seek the same.
With that in mind, a peace agreement governing border disputes in Kashmir from 1949 appears fragile. While India and Pakistan reached a ceasefire agreement in February, the area has seen a rise in violence and terror attacks.
Rising Violence
Last Wednesday, four militants and one soldier were killed, thereby adding to a total of more than 30 deaths in recent weeks. A report in Reuters said that the police chief in Kashmir, Vijay Kumar, suspect the militant group responsible for the attacks, The Resistance Front, backed by Pakistan.
Militants appear to be targeting minorities in an attempt to spark conflict.
“These targeted killings of minorities are meant to create a political effect and further polarize an already polarized situation,” Avinash Paliwal, a foreign policy analyst, told the Washington Post for a recent report.
Human Rights Concerns
For Pakistan’s part, observers raise concerns about human rights and rights minorities and Muslims in general. According to reporting in Pakistan Today by Muhammad Akram Zaheer, India has cut off lines of communication for local populations in Kashmir.
“Kashmiris are additionally targeted because they are primarily Muslim and culturally and linguistically distinct. The Indian Government has gained so much control over the social media that their accounts are suspended on the pretext that they have written anything against Hindutva ideology or Hindu fascism,” Zaheer wrote October 25.
Instability in Central Asia
The violence in Kashmir follows an uptick of attacks across Central Asia.
In response to the horrific incidents, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, recently tweeted condemning the attack in Kandahar. “I condemn in the strongest terms the despicable attack on the Imam Baragah mosque in Kandahar City, Afghanistan. The perpetrators of this latest crime against civilians exercising their right to freely practice their religion must be brought to justice,” he posted.
Additionally reporting by Srinidhi Rajagopal.
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