Dec. 11, 2018-A day after British Prime Minister announced she would not submit her Brexit deal to the parliament today as planned, both the draft plan she negotiated and her own political future face a potential end.
May said the agreement her government negotiated with the European Union would have been rejected by the parliament had it gone to a vote.
That leaves few options for Britain: schedule another parliamentary vote on the current deal, have a messy no-deal exit from European Union treaties and governance structures, or hold another U.K. referendum on whether to leave.
Border and Money
May said the deal would honor the result of the 2016 referendum that called for leaving the European Union.
“We will take back control of our borders, by putting an end to the free movement of people once and for all,” May wrote in a Nov. 25 letter to the public. “Instead of an immigration system based on where a person comes from, we will build one based on the skills and talents a person has to offer. We will take back control of our money, by putting an end to vast annual payments to the EU.”
No New Negotiation
EU members have ruled out the possibility of renegotiating the May’s Brexit plan.
“The deal we achieved is the best possible,” European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker told the European Parliament on Monday. “It’s the only deal possible.There is no room whatsoever for renegotiation.”
The Draft Deal
The 585-page draft withdraw agreement that would establish the legal framework for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union. The text covers everything from the rights of workers and residents to sales of goods and administration of shared databases, value added taxes, law enforcement cooperation and trademark and intellectual property rights.
It would provide for a transition period of withdraw of the United Kingdom from the EU governing bodies through the end of 2020.
Negotiators also spelled out a separate political declaration that paves the way for U.K-E.U. trade negotiations as well as cooperation on energy systems, law enforcement and foreign policy.
Irish Uncertainty
The Irish government and international businesses began preparing contingency plans for a no-deal exit, along with other possible scenarios. Ireland has a lot to lose from a U.K.-EU split.
Arguably, the most contentious issue in the Brexit deal deals with the trade along Ireland-Northern Ireland border — the United Kingdom’s only land border with the European Union.
When the United Kingdom leaves the EU single marker and customs union after a two-year transition period, trade along the Irish border would need a new set of rules to govern customs duties and controls.
‘Irish Backstop’
The United Kingdom and the EU are planning to negotiate those arrangements along with a new EU-UK trade agreement. But if those negotiations fail, the “Irish backstop” in the Brexit deal would ensure the border remains open to trade.
Junker said the so-called Irish backstop is essential because EU-member Ireland will “never be left alone.”
But British skeptics say it could leave Britain subject to EU rules indefinitely.
A No-Deal Exit
The United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union on March 29, 2019.
Without a legal framework to end its participation in the EU governance, common union and treaties, the British economy could experience chaotic shocks, such as food shortages, uncertainty over legal contracts, and longer processing times for trade of goods. That’s according to an analysis by UK in a Changing Europe, a think tank on UK-EU relations.
It’s economy has already experienced a slowdown amid the uncertainty, slowing to 1.1 percent in the first half of 2018.
Postpone Brexit Vote
May said she is postponing the Brexit vote in parliament until on or before Jan. 21.
Some politicians are calling for a postponement of the Brexit itself, while others want to reverse course and stay in the EU.
“We need to revoke Article 50 with immediate effect. The clock, for the moment, must be stopped,” said former British Prime Minister John Major during an event in Dublin held by Institute of International and European Affairs.
Reverse Course and Stay
A European Court of Justice ruled that the UK could unilaterally stop the Brexit process without approval of other EU member states. But May reportedly ruled that option void. ““Revoking article 50 would mean going back on the vote of the referendum and remaining in the EU,” she said.
That option may still provide a short-term solution. But it may also add complexity to the current dilemma.
Can May Hold On?
As May traveled to Brussels and Berlin to meet with EU officials and German leader Angela Merkel, she faced mounting pressure back home. Pro-Brexit conservatives said they want to call for a no-confidence vote in a potential leadership challenge to May.
One critic, former Environment Secretary Owen Paterson wrote an opinion piece in The Telegraph newspaper why the deal May negotiated must go, along with Ms. May herself.
“She has repeatedly said ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’, but it is clear her objective was to secure a deal at any cost,” Paterson wrote.
