January 10, 2022–U.S. and Russian diplomats meeting in Geneva this week face a tall task: Deescalate tensions over Ukraine. Russia has around 100,000 troops positioned near the Russian-Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, the United States is saying it will strengthen its defensive agreement with Ukraine. So far, the meetings appear to be promoting diplomacy as the answer.
Since the leaders from the two countries met virtually just over a month ago, both sides have significantly raised the stakes and preferred worst-case scenarios.
Russia Seeks Security Guarantees
Russian President Vladimir Putin laid out his case in a speech to the Russian military and during his annual press conference with reporters in December. He’s against the expansion of the NATO alliance and military presence near Russia’s border. He is seeking legal commitments that the NATO alliance will not expand further east.
Specifically, Russia wants a treaty with the United States on security guarantees. Furthermore, the country is seeking a treaty with NATO.
“These diplomatic efforts must yield results. Even more importantly, these results must be achieved within a determined timeframe,” Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a press interview in late December.
Lavrov said Russia has not put forward any ultimatums. But, for many Western observers, the buildup of troops along the Russian-Ukrainian border is enough of an ultimatum.
Draft Discussion
According to several sources, including U.S. Senator Jim Risch, R-Idaho, Russian diplomats put forward a draft proposal. The senator said the proposal is “impossible to accept.” However, it may have provided a starting point for talks today. According to Tass, a Russian-government news agency, U.S. diplomats took the proposals “very seriously.”
“We have the impression that the American side took the Russian proposals very seriously, studying them thoroughly,” said Sergey Ryabkov, Russian’s deputy foreign minister. “Today there are no grounds to talk about what systems and in what quantity they can be deployed as this will be immediately perceived as a new threat from Russia. We are working on a result that can be achieved through diplomacy.”
Blinken Raised the Stakes
In the days ahead of today’s meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken clearly spelled out the stakes if Russia made moves to invade Ukraine. First, Blinken laid out a massive critique against Russia in a speech on Friday, criticizing the country for conducting a proxy war in Ukraine and for spreading disinformation. On Sunday, in an interview with ABC News, Blinken said Russia has two clear choices.
“One is through diplomacy and dialogue. The other is through deterrence and massive consequences for Russia if it renews its aggression against Ukraine,” Blinken said.
The second route would lead to tough Western sanctions as well as stronger U.S. defense guarantees for Ukraine.
The Week Ahead
So far, the diplomatic route appears to be working. But the week is just beginning. On Wednesday, January 12, representatives from NATO and the Russia Council meet in Brussels. The following day, January 13, Russian officials met with the OSCE Permanent Council meeting in Vienna.
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