Jan. 17, 2020-Immediate tensions between the United States and Iran subsided since the two country’s attacks and counter-attacks in Iraq earlier this month. While war between the two countries appears less imminent, the path forward points to either inevitable conflict or backdoor diplomacy.
Today, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei conducted a rare Friday speech in which he condemned the United States and defended his country’s missile attacks against U.S. military bases in Iraq. The strikes inadvertently downed a Ukrainian passenger plane.
The United States, meanwhile, intensified its sanctions against Iran, adding Iranian military and political officials and companies trading in Iran’s metals industry to its already-large list of sanctioned individuals and entities.
“We have succeeded in raising the costs for Iran, and the regime is badly managing a crisis of its own making,” State Department representative Brian Hook said today, citing inflation, a banking crisis, fiscal problems and joblessness in Iran. “The sanctions we have imposed are the toughest ever.”
New Deterrence Policy
U.S. leaders announced a tougher policy on deterrence to discourage Iran from gaining military strength and pursuing nuclear weapons. In a speech to the Hoover Institution on Monday, Secretary Mike Pompeo argued that the 2015 five-party nuclear deal enabled Iran to create wealth and opened “revenue streams for the ayatollahs to build up the Shiite militia networks.” President Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018 in a controversial move.
“Your adversary must understand not only do you have the capacity to impose costs but that you are, in fact, willing to do so,” Pompeo said of the new deterrence strategy.
The strategy is to isolate Iran diplomatically while putting pressure on it economically and militarily. U.S. policies have effectively cut off 80 percent of Iran’s oil revenues, gained support in monitoring a key shipping route, the Straits of Hormuz, and won allies in banning an Iranian airline, Pompeo said.
“We have re-established deterrence, but we know it’s not everlasting, that risk remains,” Pompeo said. “We are determined not to lose that deterrence.”
Pathways for Diplomacy?
When asked by former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice about the path forward for diplomacy, Pompeo said the U.S. administration is talking to officials in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Bahrain to “to build out a set of understandings that take down risk.”
As for the U.S. relationship with Iran, it appears the path for diplomacy is not yet clear.
Pompeo told the audience that rather than have a meeting where you “sit and lie to each other,” saying nice things, the Trump administration “tried to just be candid.” They’ve made it clear to Iran what it “simply cannot do.”
It’s not clear whether Iran will listen. The response, so far, appears defiant.
“The Quds Force is an entity with lofty, human goals,” Khamenei said, defending the use of Iranian militias in the region. “They are combatants without borders who go wherever they are needed to protect the dignity of the oppressed.”
Is Conflict Inevitable?
Some analysts argue the current conditions point to inevitable conflict. For example, writing in Foreign Policy Magazine, Elizabeth Rosenberg, a former Obama Administration official, argued that “The continued use of U.S. sanctions, in the absence of negotiations and with a heightened military posture, means that the United States and Iran are locked into a confrontational stance with no plans for de-escalation.”
It’s a dire warning of the worst-case scenario. But it doesn’t take into account Europe’s role.
Iran on a Nuclear Path
Iran President Hassan Rouhani acknowledged his country is enriching new, advanced uranium centrifuges — an act that would be in violation of the 2015 JCPOA agreement. “Pressure has increased on Iran but we continue to progress,” he said in a televised speech.
In response, France, Germany and the United Kingdom triggered the dispute mechanism in the 2015 deal. That could be the first step to reimposing sanctions against Iran through the United Nations. Furthermore, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson called for replacing the 2015 deal with a new one. “Let’s work together to replace the JCPOA and get the Trump deal instead,” he said.
U.S. diplomats welcomed the development. “As long as the regime threatens the world, it will become more isolated,” said Brian Hook, the U.S. State Department’s Special Representative for Iran.
Iran reacted by taking aim against Europeans. “Today, the American soldier is in danger, tomorrow the European soldier could be in danger,” Rouhani said.
The dispute-mechanism process could last up to two months. It will likely either create a new path forward for diplomacy or lead to more trade, economic and military conflict in the Middle East. Only time will tell.
For more information on the new U.S. sanctions, see the U.S. Treasury Department notice.
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