By Ernesto Rodriguez
Welcome to pandemic year three! So 2021 wasn’t really what everyone wanted it to be: A year where human ingenuity and science beat a pandemic, letting everybody go back to normal. Not quite. That being said, there was something that felt more normal: Politics. Or, at least in the case of Latin American politics, it was as normal as politics ever gets.
A Marked Shift Left
The region dealt with the aftermath of unrest that’s happened in the last few years. And political observers saw a marked shift to left-leaning or far-left leaders taking power. That includes Peru’s Pedro Castillo and Chile’s Gabriel Boric winning their respective elections. It’s a trend that could continue this year, with Lula Da Silva being the favorite to win the Brazilian election next October and Gustavo Petro having a real chance at the Colombian election.
The shift is not really that surprising. After years of center-right leaders in power, the pendulum just seems to be doing its normal swing movement.
Strong-Arm Politics
Of course, there are exceptions to that rule, and they are the countries with totalitarian governments or open dictatorships.
In Nicaragua, for example, Daniel Ortega showed the world that he can jail basically every other candidate without repercussion. Yes, there were elections. And, no, they didn’t come close to making the country look democratic.
A Real ‘Saab’ Story
Then, moving Southeast to one of the world’s least democratic countries, we find Venezuela. Nicolás Maduro kind of opened up the economy to the private sector – thanks in part to the sanctions leaving few other options. But given the chance to negotiate the country into relief from those sanctions by talking with political opponents, Maduro walked away.
As his old friend Alex Saab faced a judge in a Miami courtroom, Maduro left the negotiation table in Mexico with opposition leaders. So far, he hasn’t committed to going back. Still, if rumors prove right, there might be a restart as early as this month.
A Cool Dictator?
Meanwhile, El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele competed for his fair share of the world’s attention. For starters, he ignored his congress’s advice by adopting Bitcoin as the country’s new currency. Then, he powered up the cryptocurrency with the land’s volcanoes. Despite the fanfare and flames, Bukele began looking more and more repressive and totalitarian each day.
An Island of Complaints
Then, of course, the region’s oldest regime also enters the new year with a new situation: Cuba saw massive protests in July as COVID tested the public’s patience. It’s a hard situation for the new opposition that’s starting to form with many of the protestors still locked up, but the ruckus absolutely changes the game on the Island.
COVID Making Problems Worse
In other parts of the region, COVID has only made their problems more obvious. For instance, Argentina’s stubbornly high inflation rate keeps growing higher (50 percent, year-on-year), and that threatens to lead Alberto Fernández to an election loss next year.
Mexico & the U.S.
Meanwhile, in Mexico, it looks like AMLO can sit in comfort, even while being controversial both inside and outside the country.
Of course, there’s one election that could change the situation in Latin America: The U.S. midterms. While lots of the policies the United States has towards Latin America are more or less bipartisan, the Republicans are usually more radical. They’re out of power at the moment. But if they perform well in the congressional elections next November, as many observers predict, that could place a ticking time clock for negotiations to lift sanctions on Venezuela. Furthermore, a shift in politics of the North would press Mexico’s AMLO into a more stern position in his handling of the border.
Russia and China Eyeing the Area
That’s still a long way off, however. And, meanwhile, the swing to the left of the region could also mean more influence by Russia and China. Both countries have already helped the Cuban, Nicaraguan and Venezuelan regimes, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they give other leaders in the region a call. After all, if Anne Applebaum is right and there is such a thing as an “Autocracy Inc.,” well corporations like to grow.
Hang on… More Excitement Ahead!
All in all, it is gonna be an interesting year! Let’s keep ringing it in and standby to watch as all these exciting political swings happen in 2022. And, hopefully, next year, we won’t have to talk about COVID in the opening of this article.
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2022 Patti Mohr