Negotiations Between Russia And the West Continue Even As Military Forces Prepare For Conflict
January 25, 2022–Negotiations between Russia and the United States, Europe, and the NATO Alliance quickly slipped from fair to bad to worse last week, and yet diplomatic talks continue.
Ukraine is at the center of attention. At issue is its territorial integrity as well as its future military allegiance and alliance.
Ukraine is a former Soviet state about one and a half the size of the state of California. It borders seven countries: Russia, Belarus, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Moldova.
Boundaries, NATO & Tensions
For years, if not decades, it’s been caught between a geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West. But tensions in that struggle have never been worse. Even when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, the prospect for military conflict between Russia and the West hasn’t been this high.
Russia President Vladimir Putin is adamant that he does not want Ukraine to become part of the NATO alliance. He is asking for security guarantees that NATO will not expand up against Russia’s border. So far, NATO, the United States and other countries have rejected that demand.
U.S. President Joe Biden said assessing the situation is a “little bit like reading tea leaves.” It is not clear what Putin will do. The West is posing widespread economic consequences if Russia invades Ukraine.
Latest Developments
Here are the latest developments in this ongoing diplomatic sparring and possible crisis:
- NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoan? said the alliance plans to submit written proposals to Russia this week. Furthermore, he said “NATO and NATO Allies are ready to engage and listen to Russia’s concerns, but will not compromise on core principles: on the right of each nation to choose its own path and on NATO’s ability to protect and defend all Allies.” (NATO, Jan. 25)
- Russian President Vladimir Putin is shoring up Russian relations with Cuba and Venezuela. He held telephone conversation with Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez on Monday. The two leaders discussed “further coordination of Russia’s and Cuba’s actions in the international arena in line with the principles of strategic partnership,” according to the Kremlin. (Jan. 24)
- The U.S. Defense Department put a range of military units, including 8,500 U.S.-based personnel on “heightened preparedness to deploy” in the event that NATO activates its Response Force. (Pentagon, Jan. 24) In comments to reporters, President Biden said the U.S. troops would support NATO members such as Poland, Romania and Hungary if necessary. And the U.S. military is not considering sending them to Ukraine. (Jan. 25)
- Ukraine experienced massive cyberattacks; NATO cybersecurity experts are coordinated with the Ukrainian government to bolster their cyber defenses. (NATO, Jan. 25) The alliance is also strengthening its cooperation with Finland and Sweden and met with leaders of those countries this week.
- Russia has amassed 100,000 troops along the Russian-Ukraine and Belarus-Ukraine borders, according to various news reports.
- Stanislav Zas, the leader of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, of which Russia and Belarus are part, said the alliance is not involved in the talks. He added that the alliance is “closely following them and hopes that they will lead to a reduction of tension in the region, including in the CSTO area of responsibility.” (CSTO, Jan. 20)
- The United States is preparing sanctions as well as export controls in the event Russia invades Ukraine, according to a senior U.S. official for the Biden Administration. (Jan. 25)
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