January 7, 2020-A week into the new year, mounting tension in the Middle East is giving way to major political changes. Lying between Iran and Syria and Lebanon, Iraq is at the center of a battle for influence and control between a U.S.-led coalition and Iran.
As pressure mounts, leaders from both countries have been high on rhetoric and low on strategy. Their primary goals appear to be to push the presence of the other out of Iraq.
Killing Soleimani
In a dramatic escalation of the geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran, a U.S. military drone strike on January 2 near Bagdad killed top Iranian militia commander Qasem Soleimani.
“We got him,” U.S. President Donald Trump said at a political rally days later. He justified the strike by saying Soleimani was planning attacks against Americans.
Soleimani was the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force. He was the nation’s second most powerful figure. He led Iran’s miltia operations in Iraq, Syria and Lebannon.
Growing Cycle of Violence
Truth be told, the strike that killed Soleimani is only the most visible sign of what has been months of escalating violence in Iraq.
It followed an intensifying cycle of violence, which included a rocket attack by Iranian-back militia that killed an American contractor, U.S. military strikes against Kataeb Hezbollah militia, and a violent protest on the U.S. embassy in Bagdad.
For Iraqis, the stakes are high and the wounds are deep. Since the beginning of October, Iraqi state security forces and unidentified armed men have killed more than 325people and wounded at least 15,000 in the government’s brutal crackdown on protests. It is noteworthy that many Iraqis blamed Soleimani and Iran for some of the strongarmed tactics against protestors.
Iranian Influence in Iraq
Iran has gained a signficant stake in Iraq — its traditional rival and foe — starting with the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and overthrow of Saddam Hussein.
Iran filled a gap that U.S. forces left when they started leaving Iraq in 2011, and it was the first to respond when Daesh (ISIS or ISIL) seized territory in Iraq in June 2014.
“It took America three months to start bombing the terrorists in Iraq. It took Iran 24 hours.” Mowaffak Al-Rubaie, Iraq’s former national security adviser, said in an interview with Vice News.
In recent months, Iran and its militia units have sought greater control over Iraqi politics, and their leaders vowed to push U.S. interests out of the region.
Foreign Fighters in Iraq
Both Iran and the United States have a military presence in Iraq. Since the defeat of Daesh last March, those fighters are increasingly taking aim at each other.
Iraqis politicians appear alarmed and unable to quell the violence. On Sunday, January 5, the Iraqi Parliament passed a resolution calling for an end to foreign military presence in their country. Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi led the debate, while Sunni and Kurdish parliamentarians reportedly boycotted the vote.
“The Iraqi government must work to end the presence of any foreign troops on Iraqi soil and prohibit them from using its land, airspace or water for any reason,” the resolution said.
What’s troubling is that it appears a proxy war between the U.S. and Iranian forces in Iraq has already started.
“It is already. [Iraq] is becoming a platform and a theater for conflict,” Ayad Allawi, former Iraqi vice resident, told Vice News. “This region is in a boiling position now.”
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