Monday, June 30

Types of News: Analysis

Deeper analysis on world diplomacy, economics and geopolitics.

GUEST POST: The Shattering of Global Oil
28Apr By Guest WriterNo Comments
Energy Policy, Oil & Gas, Type of News: Guest Post, Types of News: Analysis

GUEST POST: The Shattering of Global Oil

By Peter Zeihan Oil demand is relatively inelastic. That’s a fancy-schmancy economic term that means people and firms’ energy demand doesn’t vary very much from day-to-day or even year-to-year. Driving to work is perhaps the most accessible example. You do it every workday. If you don’t, you don’t work. And so you drive. Your gasoline demand is stable. Inelastic. Doesn’t matter much if gasoline sells for $1 or $4. On the price side, this means the “normal” rules of supply and demand barely apply. Even minor shifts in supply or demand have wildly outsized impacts on price. We’re used to seeing this as a shortage. China booms and oil prices go up. Iran and Iraq go to war and prices go up. Derivatives trading enters the world of oil and prices go up. Geopolitical Shocks to Oil Pr...
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COVID-19, From Bats to Humans: Examining the Wuhan Connection
17Apr By Patti MohrNo Comments
Communism, Dictatorship, Globalization, Global Disintegration, Organizations, IMF, WTO, G7, Types of News: Analysis

COVID-19, From Bats to Humans: Examining the Wuhan Connection

April 17, 2020--A great and tragic mystery of 2020 is the origin of the COVID-19 virus that is sweeping the world with sickness and death. Some researchers point to a seafood market in Wuhan. Others say it could have started in a Chinese lab in Wuhan. Most certainly, it came from bats. But how did it jump to humans? From Wuhan to the World To date, the COVID-19 virus that has infected over 2 million people worldwide and killed 149,000 people. Of the first 309 confirmed cases in China, 270 cases were confirmed in Wuhan. Of the first 41 patients hospitalized in Wuhan with the virus, 27 of them, 66 percent, had a connection to a food and wild animal market. Wholesale Food Market As early as December 2019, reports from China pointed to the connection to the Huanan Seafood Wholes...
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Afghanistan Peace Unlikely, As U.S. Exits Trillion-Dollar War
6Mar By Patti MohrNo Comments
Geopolitics, Types of News: Analysis

Afghanistan Peace Unlikely, As U.S. Exits Trillion-Dollar War

March 6, 2020--In the days following the U.S.-Taliban agreement, violent attacks in Afghanistan show that an intense battle is underway for control of the country. On Saturday, U.S. representatives signed an agreement with and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, otherwise known as the Taliban, in Doha, Qatar. The deal promises to "bring peace to Afghanistan." But in the week that followed, attacks by Taliban forces and other gunmen shed blood of Afghan troops, government officials and civilians. On Wednesday, the Taliban conducted a wave of attacks across the country. And today, an attack by gunmen against the Afghan government killed at least 27 people and wounded 29 others. Talks between the Afghan government and Taliban are scheduled to start on Tuesday, March 10. Today, ...
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Iran Reacts with Defiance to New U.S. Deterrence Strategy
17Jan By Patti MohrNo Comments
Middle East, Sanctions, Types of News: Analysis

Iran Reacts with Defiance to New U.S. Deterrence Strategy

Jan. 17, 2020-Immediate tensions between the United States and Iran subsided since the two country's attacks and counter-attacks in Iraq earlier this month. While war between the two countries appears less imminent, the path forward points to either inevitable conflict or backdoor diplomacy. Today, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei conducted a rare Friday speech in which he condemned the United States and defended his country's missile attacks against U.S. military bases in Iraq. The strikes inadvertently downed a Ukrainian passenger plane. The United States, meanwhile, intensified its sanctions against Iran, adding Iranian military and political officials and companies trading in Iran's metals industry to its already-large list of sanctioned individuals and entities. ...
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New Year Starts With Middle East Meltdown
7Jan By Patti MohrNo Comments
Middle East, Types of News: Analysis

New Year Starts With Middle East Meltdown

January 7, 2020-A week into the new year, mounting tension in the Middle East is giving way to major political changes. Lying between Iran and Syria and Lebanon, Iraq is at the center of a battle for influence and control between a U.S.-led coalition and Iran. As pressure mounts, leaders from both countries have been high on rhetoric and low on strategy. Their primary goals appear to be to push the presence of the other out of Iraq. Killing Soleimani In a dramatic escalation of the geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran, a U.S. military drone strike on January 2 near Bagdad killed top Iranian militia commander Qasem Soleimani. "We got him," U.S. President Donald Trump said at a political rally days later. He justified the strike by saying Soleimani was pla...
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Big Tech May Pose Big Risks for Finance Firms, Consumers
25Jun By Patti MohrNo Comments
Big Tech, Digital Economy, Finance, Investing, Types of News: Analysis

Big Tech May Pose Big Risks for Finance Firms, Consumers

June 25, 2019 -- As big technology firms expand their services to include finance, it is poses new risks to consumers, competitors and financial systems. With large customer bases, access to massive amounts of data and the ability to scale-up quickly, technology-service providers like Alibaba, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Groupon and Tencent are poised to change the financial-services industry, international analysts say. A Ripe Opportunity for Growth Currently earning just 11 percent of their revenues from their financial services, many tech firms are eyeing the field as a means to make big profits. New services include payments systems, digital money, money management, insurance and lending. "Big techs have the potential to loom large very quickly as systemically relev...
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Britain, Ireland in Turmoil As Brexit Vote Cancelled
11Dec By Patti MohrNo Comments
Domestic Politics, Global Trade, Globalization, Global Disintegration, Political Systems, Domestic Politics, Types of News: Analysis

Britain, Ireland in Turmoil As Brexit Vote Cancelled

Dec. 11, 2018-A day after British Prime Minister announced she would not submit her Brexit deal to the parliament today as planned, both the draft plan she negotiated and her own political future face a potential end. May said the agreement her government negotiated with the European Union would have been rejected by the parliament had it gone to a vote. That leaves few options for Britain: schedule another parliamentary vote on the current deal, have a messy no-deal exit from European Union treaties and governance structures, or hold another U.K. referendum on whether to leave. Border and Money May said the deal would honor the result of the 2016 referendum that called for leaving the European Union. "We will take back control of our borders, by putting an end to the free m...
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A Closer Look At Central America as Migrant Caravan Pauses in Mexico City
8Nov By Patti MohrNo Comments
Migration, Immigration, Borders, Types of News: Analysis

A Closer Look At Central America as Migrant Caravan Pauses in Mexico City

Nov. 8, 2018--Under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to stop the flow of migration coming from their countries, the presidents of Guatemala and Honduras are urging migrants to return home and calling for an investigation to determine the cause of the latest waves of migration. Honduran President Juan Hernández said the migrants "were tricked into embarking on this irregular crossing, which was organized for political ends," Xinhua news reported. He promised to generate more jobs for Hondurans by investing in infrastructure. Meeting with Hernández on Monday in Tegucigalpa, Guatemala President Jimmy Morales said he shares his concerns and wants to prosecute people who incited and directed the migration caravan. "We are very much in agreement with President Hernández and we ...
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U.S. Debt Doubles Under A Decade of Deficits
5Nov By Patti MohrNo Comments
Currency, Debt, National Budgets & Interest Rates, Types of News: Analysis

U.S. Debt Doubles Under A Decade of Deficits

Nov. 5, 2018--The U.S. national debt doubled over the last decade, from $10 trillion in 2008 to over $21 trillion this year, as the government continually spent more money than it raised in revenue. The largest deficits came during the Obama Administration in the aftermath of the 2008-09 global financial crisis: $1.4 trillion in 2009, $1.29 trillion in 2010 and $1.3 trillion in 2011. The U.S. economy had fallen into recession at the end of 2007 and did not begin to recover until June 2009. By 2014, however, the economy resumed steady annual growth. National Debt Even during today's relative strong economic growth period, annual deficits are reaching close to $1 trillion a year. The annual deficit is projected to reach $833 billion this fiscal year and $984 billion in FY2019. As ...
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Businesses Begin to Feel the Bite of a Global Trade War
26Jun By Patti MohrNo Comments
Global Trade, Types of News: Analysis

Businesses Begin to Feel the Bite of a Global Trade War

June 26, 2018 - As a growing list of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs take effect, businesses are beginning to feel the economic impact. Manufacturers worldwide are bracing for the change and considering ways to manage. Importers and Exporters Impacted Manufacturers in Guangdong, China, for instance, say they are consider setting up factories in countries like India, Vietnam and Mexico, shipping their products to the United States through other countries first and charging U.S. buyers more. While the impact might be relatively small for Chinese industry as a whole, individual industries and companies, such as automotive suppliers, would be hit hard, according to South China Morning Post reporting. Companies making metal products who are exposed to both tariffs and counter tariffs on st...
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