Next Round Of Talks In Mexico Are Scheduled For Sept. 24-27; Venezuela Now Wants Alex Saab Part Of Its Delegation
Editors Note: Venezuela has been in the grips of political and economic crises for much of the past decade. It is the poorest country in South America with a per capita GDP of $3,374. Roughly 94 percent of the country lives in poverty, according to the United Nations.
Nicolás Maduro, the successor to Hugo Chavez, rules the country with authoritarian control. The government controls much of the economy through ownership of major enterprises, price controls, and an overdependence on the state-run oil sector. And under Maduro’s leadership and against the weight of U.S. sanctions, the economy has spiraled further into crisis. The 2018 election, which gave Maduro another six years in office, was marked by election fraud, low voter turnout, and serious shortcomings. As a result, opposition parties led by Juan Guaidó boycotted the election and refused to recognize the results. The United States nor the European Union along with around 60 countries do not recognize the results of the election.
Regional and municipal elections are scheduled for Nov. 21. And Mexico is hosting talks between the Venezuelan government and opposition leaders.
September 17, 2021—After two years of a political situation that can only be described as static, this year saw the Venezuelan opposition and the Nicolás Maduro regime finally sit down to negotiate.
The talks in Mexico are not the first time the two sides tried to settle their difference. Usually, the negotiations end with the government kicking the table after being unable to get what they wanted.
This time things actually looked like they could go differently. The Venezuelan opposition finally had some leverage thanks to the sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union and Canada. What is more, the international recognition of Juan Guaidó as interim president gave the opposition further strength.
Besides, the government absolutely needs some relief and to be able to use some of its assets overseas to deal with the country’s economic crisis.
Billions in IMF Support
Already, the government is benefitting from the talks. Its central bank published data a week ago showing its international reserves had nearly doubled, up $5.1 billion to $11.3 billion. That is thanks to a release by the International Monetary Fund of special drawing rights, which countries can exchange for hard currency.
Opposition Goal: Free, Fair Elections
For the opposition, the talks are a chance to get a plausible calendar for a fair, or at least fairer, electoral cycle. They are already mid-campaign for the next regional and mayoral elections, expected to take place next November.
Scheduling the regional and municipal elections is a safe bet for the government. Leaders want to gain some of its legitimacy in the eyes of the international community. Also, they are not really risking anything.
The ultimate goal for the opposition is, of course, to find a way to get to a presidential election to occur and under better conditions than the last one in 2018. Regional elections might be a step in that direction.
International Recognition
Negotiators for Maduro insist on international recognition of their government as a prerequisite in talks.
But if the government gets its legitimacy back, that could leave Juan Guaidó in a weird place. He still calls himself interim president, but for the talks to work he might have to give that title up, and while it has become basically a joke inside Venezuela it has helped him get recognized by governments outside the country.
Maduro Government Wants Relief From Sanctions
Maduro wants relief from economic sanctions by the United States, Canada and the European Union.
While that’s a topic likely discussed in the next round of talks, it is good to remember that the opposition can’t really deliver everything the regime expects. The sanctions, one of the few bipartisan issues still found in the United States, are Chavismo’s priority. Right now, the Biden administration is saying the only way to get the sanctions removed is by seeing some real progress toward reinstating a true democracy in Venezuela.
Points of Agreement
We have already seen some agreements between both sides. They agreed to use the external assets controlled by Guaidó to try and get more vaccines inside the country. Right now Venezuela has the smallest percentage of vaccinated people in all of South America. Also, the country still considers the Essequibo part of its territory. At the same time, Chavismo* has released some important political prisoners, including Freddy Guevara, a member of the National Assembly who is now expected to join the talks.
(Chavismo is a term used to describe the government and all who align with it.)
Alex Saab: Criminal or Negotiator?
Of course, this was all fine and well until September 14. That’s when Jorge Rodríguez, the main representative of the Venezuelan Government in the Mexico talks announced that they wanted Alex Saab at the negotiation table. That’s a move that could cause the talks to implode — even before they sit down again.
Saab, a Colombian businessman that Chavismo is now calling a diplomat, is in the process of being extradited to the United States. He is wanted in a Florida court on an indictment of money laundering and illegal bribery.
Saab was one of the main providers of both the Clap and the Mision Vivienda programs, and was named in the infamous Panama Papers. He was detained in Cabo Verde in 2019 and the government of that country approved his extradition to the US this month.
The Saab Card Puts Talks On Thin Ice
This puts the negotiation schedule on thin ice. It’s really unlikely that the Biden Administration would want to let one of the FBI’s most wanted walk free. And even if they did, the U.S. courts could still ask him to face a trial. It’s impossible to know what Saab knows –and what he might reveal. That has the regime so nervous, but it looks like they are ready to implode the negotiations to keep it quiet.
In any case, the clock is ticking for the next meeting. Both sides know what they want to get out of them and how much they are willing to give up.
We’ll see what happens, but in the meantime, the Venezuelan people still face one of the worse humanitarian crises in the story of South America.
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