Editor’s Note: The elections this Fall in Venezuela marked the first time in four years the opposition took part. The Opposition represents the interim government led by Juan Guaidó, who is recognized by the United States and 50 other countries as the rightful leader of the country in the aftermath of the 2018 fraudulent election. The opposition boycotted the 2018 and 2020 elections. But with recent talks between the opposition and the government in Mexico, they are engaging more in politics
For many of the nearly 6 million expats who left the country in the wake of political and economic crises since 2015, the hope is for a new government and a better life for the Venezuelans left behind. Ernesto Rodriguez, one of those expats, analysizes the outlook for that in the essay below.
By Ernesto Rodriguez
December 10, 2021–The Venezuela regional and mayoral elections have come and gone, and right now it doesn’t feel like they mean much. Two weeks after the election the country still feels the same, with the Maduro Government still looking strong and in power, and the opposition not really managing to get its act together as a single unit.
In the long term, most people in the country seem to be disconnected from politics. The lack of participation means the opposition doesn’t have the ability to mobilize the country and create internal pressures for the government.
Lessons Learned From the Elections
That being said, the elections did prove a couple of things that could be useful to predict the future of the country. For one, while chavismo is undoubtedly powerful, the election shows the weakness of its electoral muscle. The government used the classic “divide and conquer” approach with the opposition and it worked. But not as much as one might think. The opposition parties still won the governorships of four states and actually got more Mayoral offices than last time. Meanwhile, chavismo got their worst number of total votes with a little over 3.722 million.
“Chavismo” is the name of the left-wing political ideology of former Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and now President Nicolás Maduro.
Voter Participation
That being said, a fractured opposition that can’t count on the vote of Venezuelans outside the country to beat chavismo in a nationwide election.
At the moment many players inside the election are looking for ways to compete against the government either on the street or in a fair election. For now, Maria Corina Machado of Vente Venezuela is calling for an internal election in the opposition to choose a leader. And Julio Borges of Primero Justicia resigned his position in the caretaker government and is talking about reforming the opposition, it’s hard to define the future but there are some early signs of the opposition looking for new strategies. We’ll see what they’ll do.
In the end, none of the parties achieved what they wanted in the election.
Now chavismo has also reacted to the results. While they started by celebrating the results once the numbers from Barinas, the birth state of Hugo Chavez Frias, the mood in the government coalition changed. And before the National Electoral Center counted all the votes, the Venezuelan Supreme Court decided to go back on a presidential pardon given to the opposition candidate in the state Freddy Superlano.
This decision made the European Union mission to the country declare that the elections weren’t fair, alleging a lack of separation between state powers.
EU Observers: For the first time in 15 years, the European Union sent observers–more than 130 of them. The EU mission released findings about the elections on November 30. The mission said it found “concrete improvements in the electoral process.” However, they also found “major structural problems.” Those include a lack of judicial independence, adherence to the rule of law, and media independence, and the government’s use of state resources for political campaigning and arbitrary disqualification of candidates. The EU mission plans to release recommendations in early 2022.
Maduro Wanted Legitimacy
This doesn’t give the Maduro Government the legitimacy it wanted from the elections. In the end, none of the parties found what they wanted in the election.
The Opposition Wanted Influence
For the opposition, the lack of participation means that it doesn’t have the ability to mobilize the country and create internal pressures for the government.
In the long term, most people in the country seem to be disconnected from politics. The need to survive during the pandemic and the economic crisis, even if the economy is stabilizing in parts of the country, has made people ignore most political news. For now, it seems the situation is a stalemate. Considering the government is in power, they don’t seem interested in breaking it.
With some rumors of the Mexico negotiation restarting in January, and a special repeat election taking place in Barinas, we can just wait until next year. We will see if 2022 brings any new movement to the board.
