And Where Does Juan Guaidó Stand Politically?
February 9, 2022—It’s probably not easy to be Juan Guaidó in 2022. The former upstart of Venezuelan politics is now struggling to find relevance, three years after being appointed as interim president by the National Assembly he hasn’t been able to accomplish his goal of toppling the Nicolás Maduro regime and leading the opposition to free elections.
Now he is also starting to lose his international backing. Support in the European Union started wavering in recent months. Meanwhile, with the world looking away from Venezuela and towards the crisis in Ukraine and Afghanistan, interest itself is dissipating. Even with the strongholds of the United States and the United Kingdom, Venezuelan democracy isn’t big policy topic for the leaders. Although the U.S. State Department did extend its support for Guaidó in January.
Internal Dissent
If that wasn’t enough trouble for the opposition leader, there’s more. First, he has also been dealing with dissent inside his own “government.” Former deputy of the National Assembly, and founder of Primero Justicia Julio Borges, ended last year by resigning from his position as “Foreign Affairs Minister” and publishing an open letter arguing for the dissolution of the interim government.
“We don’t have unity, we don’t have a strategy, and we don’t have a clear route,” he wrote in a letter. In it, he talks about how the interim government has become its own dysfunctional bureaucracy. He said, “we were supposed to be a tool to get rid of the dictatorship, but we’ve become an obstacle.”
A Big Loss For Guaidó
Borges is no small loss for the Guaidó. Borges was the architect of the interim government’s international recognition and instrumental in gaining control over Venezuela’s international assets, like CITGO and the gold saved in the British banks. Without Borges the opposition, or at least the interim government, losses an important asset.
A President Without Power
Given everything, it’s hard to imagine the “president” being able to form a real plan. While he has talked about lobbying for sanction relief if the Mexico negotiations restart, he doesn’t really have the same pull he once had with the EU. Also, with the new left-leaning leadership coming to power in South America, that doesn’t give him an easy map to work with.
Opposition leaders now have few options to put internal pressure on the regime. Unlike last year, there’s no electoral event coming in the calendar to rally around. Moreover, they don’t have the same strength to take the protests to the streets like they did in 2017 and 2019.
Views From Inside & Outside The Country
For many Venezuelans, any plan that Guaidó might have feels irrelevant. Most people inside the country don’t expect any change to come from politics. They are more worried about their day-to-day lives.
That might be why the Maduro Regime feels comfortable menacing Guaidó again. In recent days, Maduro and various members of the regime have been pointing towards the possibility of putting the interim president in jail. Right now, it is just a threat. But without people protesting against the possibility and more countries supporting him, Guaidó has even more reasons to worry than before.
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